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The Checklist Manifesto — A Liberal’s Guide to Effective Voting in a Complex Modern Society

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When I wrote The Public and its Problems in 1927, I was concerned that American life had become endlessly complex, which I believed negatively affected the public’s efficacy in political action. Today, almost 100 years later, this assessment is more relevant than ever. Somehow we managed to multiply this complexity many times over. Modern life is full of wondrous distractions which I could not even have imagined in 1927. Before, I was worried about movies, radio, magazines and motor cars. Now, they have invented flat screen TVs and the internet. One can watch movies, read magazines, and stream every song ever created on her iPad any time of day. What is more, she can play Angry Birds, one of a million mindless iPad games, while listening to dubstep on her headphones and scrolling through Facebook in between games. Modern life only barely requires consciousness. (And they now make motor cars that can go over 200 mph!) So it is no surprise that so many people claim to be uninterested in politics, or that they do not vote because it doesn’t matter, because it “doesn’t affect their lives.” In a sense, it truly doesn’t, as so much of life now consists of playing on one’s iPad, which one can do regardless of the president.

But an even deeper, and still yet inchoate, issue is that, should one desire to organize an effective public toward the end of political action, doing so in an informed way can be seemingly impossible. The difficulty of understanding all the technology and science involved in the modern political process is a quite significant barrier to entry. We hear daily of expectations for the economy based on economic models said to account for jobs reports, unemployment, consumer price index, and whether the Fed will raise rates. Agriculture and industry as well involve science that perplex all but the few who have specialized in their respective science over the course of an entire career. How many people truly understand the science behind genetically modified foods, or even how their motor cars use gasoline to run? And issues of pollution and global warming resulting from modern life are discussed in terms of advanced scientific models. How is the average American expected to be politically active in a society involving such complexity? How could one even make an informed voting decision? People simply do not have the time to attain the knowledge required to fully understand the intricacies of each of these issues. Even becoming well-acquainted with one or two would be quite a serious undertaking, and no doubt the issue would quickly morph as newer and newer technologies become available and advance the problem into further complexity. So it appears that for the American people, voting based on a deep understanding of the complexity of all the issues is an infeasible undertaking. On the basis of what, then, is the American public supposed to vote?

I am reminded of Atul Gawande’s book, The Checklist Manifesto. Gawande is a surgeon who recognized the extraordinary complexity of modernity in his own field, medicine and surgery. He generalizes the observation to all of modern life, which contains endless complexity, as I have described. Gawande argues that, though it may seem beneath us, using a checklist can often be a quite effective way to cope with the extraordinary complexity of many modern problems. For example, he describes how the use of checklists in emergency rooms and in surgeries have helped to keep people from skipping over what appear to be trivial steps that could in fact have life-or-death consequences. He applies this to other domains like piloting large and complex aircraft and making financial decisions. Gawande suggest that even domain experts should often use checklists, because the complexity of many domains is such that one often forgets to consider all the basics. If experts should be using checklists to make decisions in complex situations, surely the average American should not try in vain to understand the ins and outs of every political issue.

I advocate the use of checklists by Americans when making voting decisions. In the presidential debates alone, we hear so many appeals to facts and statistics that verifying each of these instances in an efforts to make a fully informed voting decision would be impossible. And this is just one of many political races in the current election season: simultaneously informing oneself fully on the issues and facts discussed by one’s state representatives, railroad commissioner and judges, in addition to the president and dozens others, is incomprehensible. It would be far beyond a full-time job. Yet voters should not altogether ignore facts and science and expert opinion. Rather, voters should compile some rules of thumb regarding appeal to these facts and expert opinions. A so-called voting checklist consists of a collection of such rules of thumb. We can thus canalize the use of science effectively into Americans’ voting decisions. Doing so would morph the inchoate public into a politically powerful public with an effective and organized voting strategy.

 

 

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Moneyball for Government — The New Liberal Ideal?

It may once have been reasonable for the public to enact social change on the basis of principles alone. Though these principles did not in themselves justify the political action, they tended to promote the liberty of the individual to develop to fulfill his or her own fullest potential, and insofar as they had such consequences these principled political actions were justified. Specifically I mean that the individualistic liberal societal attitude of which I often speak was right to apply principled ideals of liberty in achieving personal freedom. Such actions canalized the development of individual liberty such that it tended toward liberty of the development of the individual. As such these were the actions necessary for their time.

Yet times have changed, and the relevance of such principled action has long passed. Rather than stay out of the way, the government has rightly restored some of its power to promote liberty, a development which we saw over the course of the 20th Century. This was the type of political action suited to the times, as the earlier individualistic liberalism, despite its advances in liberty, had the negative effect of granting what was once the government’s power to large corporations, allowing them dominance over the laboring class. This situation necessitated the regrowth of the scope of government, this time with an emphasis on the government’s ability to promote individuals’ liberty. We saw this through such as examples as FDR’s “Second Bill of Rights.”

However this was still principled action, though in the opposite direction, meaning that the principle tended to promote the expansion rather than the restriction of government programs. (The 2nd Bill of Rights serves again as an example of such principles.) Yet in the current times our society has shifted yet again such that no such principled approach can be the most efficient means of securing the liberty of individuals to grow and develop. Our conditions of time and place have changed. In the so-called “data-driven” society we have become, we now possess the technology to assess the consequences of political action more scientifically. A principled approach is only right insofar as it is useful — but now that we have the ability to judge the consequences of individual policies more accurately and systematically, we should accordingly adjust our approach to allow the use of such methods to their fullest potential.

51lupivkcel-_sy344_bo1204203200_In particular, the benefits of using statistical methods and mathematical modeling seem clear. Such groups as “Moneyball for Government”  seek to “stop spending dollars on programs that aren’t getting results” by using such methods. This group advocates the “use [of] data and evidence to continuously improve quality and impact, while also reducing duplication and cutting red tape that can strangle new ideas,” and seeks to “focus on outcomes and lives changed, rather than simply compliance and numbers served.” These more rigorous and experimental methods will allow us to try several compelling policies, quantitatively assess the results of each, and choose the most effective program.

Another example is seen with the article “Modelling a Basic Income with Python and Monte Carlo Simulation,” which gives a simple demonstration of how mathematical and computational methods can be used to gain informational leverage on economic policy decisions. Certainly, such techniques are used today by many holding or seeking political power when making political and especially economic decisions. What I advocate is that the scope of such methods is expanded into the realm of public discussion, such that most public arguments will be quantitative and based on scientific rigor, rather than the current state of public argument, which is at argument from ethical principles and at worst pure sophistry. Though the domain of applying these statistical methods to politics is still yet an inchoate science, I expect the domain to rightly grow in influence on public debate and policy decision.

No doubt there will remain much argument to be had about the creation and assessment of such models, but this discussion will be more rigorous and scientific. I believe this is the most scientific and thus the most effective means currently available to us for assessment of and decisions about political action. Use of these methods will enable us to judge which policy is most likely to promote individuals’ liberty of development most efficiently.

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